About

A specialist practice for stored-value liabilities

CardBreakage exists because breakage sits in a gap: too quantitative for program teams, too niche for general advisory, and too material to leave on an inherited assumption.

Why we exist

The number is material and almost never measured

Companies that issue stored value carry an obligation whose ultimate settlement is statistical, not contractual. A share of it will simply never be claimed.

That share is routinely estimated once, benchmarked against an industry figure, and then carried forward for years while the underlying behavior drifts. Our practice is built entirely around measuring it properly and writing it down defensibly.

We work with finance leaders, controllers, program owners, and investors who need the position quantified from their own data rather than borrowed from someone else's.

Program types modeled

Standard engagement

3 wks

From clean extract

Analytical layers

Curves, aging, terminal, exposure

Sensitivity cases

Low, base, high

How we work

Four things we hold to

Precision over positioning

We publish ranges and state confidence limits. A number we cannot defend is worse than no number at all.

Specialist, not generalist

Stored-value behavior is the only thing we model. That focus is what produces segmentation a generalist engagement would miss.

Documentation as deliverable

The analysis pack is written for the reviewer who will challenge it, because that reviewer always arrives eventually.

Independence

We are not a card platform, processor, or program manager. We have no interest in what the number turns out to be.

Engagement

Run your breakage audit

A confidential, analyst-led review of your stored-value liability — expected breakage, redemption behavior, and escheatment exposure quantified against your own data.

No engagement commitment required. Scope is confirmed before work begins.

Run My Breakage Audit Review Methodology