CardBreakageCardbreakage

Platforms & issuers

Multi-program portfolios

Platforms, issuers, and program managers carrying stored value across dozens or hundreds of underlying programs, each with its own behavior.

What drives breakage here

The behavior specific to this program type

Program heterogeneity

A portfolio rate is the average of programs that share almost nothing behaviorally — merchant category, denomination, and channel all diverge.

Concentration risk

A handful of programs typically drive the majority of outstanding value, so their curves dominate the portfolio position.

Contractual allocation

Who benefits from unredeemed value depends on program agreements, which changes what the number means for each party.

Onboarding cohorts

Newly onboarded programs have immature curves that distort portfolio behavior if they are not held out.

How we analyze it

Our approach for this structure

Every step is built from your own history and reconciled to your reported position.

  1. 01Normalize data across underlying programs into a common cohort structure.
  2. 02Cluster programs by observed redemption behavior rather than by merchant category alone.
  3. 03Model curves per cluster, holding out programs with insufficient history.
  4. 04Roll cluster results up to a portfolio position with concentration disclosure.
  5. 05Overlay contractual allocation to show the position by counterparty.
  6. 06Establish a repeatable reporting cadence as new programs mature.

Signals

When an audit is worth running

One rate for everything

A single breakage assumption is applied across a structurally diverse portfolio.

Counterparty disputes

Merchants or partners question how unredeemed value is measured and allocated.

Diligence or transaction

An investor or acquirer needs the stored-value liability independently quantified.

Engagement

Run your breakage audit

A confidential, analyst-led review of your stored-value liability — expected breakage, redemption behavior, and escheatment exposure quantified against your own data.

No engagement commitment required. Scope is confirmed before work begins.

Run My Breakage AuditReview Methodology